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文件名称: 瑞信-5G：低成本才是王道 20190213
  所属分类: 电信
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  文件大小: 4mb
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  上传时间: 2019-03-03
  提 供 者: weixin_********
 详细说明：瑞信对5G行业做了深度报告和分析，就中国几大运营商的实际进展和成本进行了测算，非常有价值！CREDIT SUISSE 13 February 2019 Focus charts and tables Figure 2: Key enablers of 5G Beam-farming Automation Distributed core Widor channel Software Defined bandwidths Setf-aptimising Networking(SDN) increases flexibility M Increased capacity etticiency 20H networks H network sentiency B enables Carrier elasticity ower latency Multl-user MIMO 1000MH Natwork Functio Carrier Dynamic traffic Network slicing Virtualisation outing anabas increased throughput (NFV notwork capacity prpprammabilly Aoac Supporta diferent Enhanced supports network 应A&GG propagation s sucing a automaton. fixed/mobne increased capacity operational agility conu:ence Source: Telstra5G investor day, December 2018 Figure 3: Status of 5G in Asia Mid-band spectrum Timing 28GHz issuance expected timing spectrum issued? 5G soft launch 5G commercial launch Spectrum issued australia 2018 9 China 2018 2019 2018 Y 2019 Auctions/ applications planned Yes 2019 2019 Hong Kong 2019 2020/2021 2021 Plans not yet clear Singapore 2020 20202021 2021 Taiwa 20202021 2021 Post 2020 2020/2021 2021 Thailand Post 2020 No 2020 Past 2020 20202021 Post 2020 No Post 2021 Post 2021 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: 5G spectrum costs in Asia to date Upfront cost Price per MHz High-band Upfront cost Price per MHz Total cost as %y Country Operator Mid-band spectrum (USS mn) per pop(US$)'mmWave'spectrum (USS mn) per pop(Uss) of market cap Australia Telstra 1x60MHz at 3. 6GHz 280 0.19 None 10% Australia Optu 1x100MHz at 3.5GHz 0.03 australia∨ damone/TPGJ1×60 MHz at3.6GHz 0.13 na China China Mobile 1x200MHz at 2.6GH None 00% 1x100MHz at 4.9GH China Ur 1×100 MHz at35GHz one 00% China China Telecom 1x 100MHz at 3.5GHz None 00% SKT X100MHz at 3. 5GHz 1,097 0.21 1x800MHz at 28GHz 0.005 68% Korea K 1×100 MHz at35GHz 871 0.171×800 MHz at28GHz 0005 158% Korea LG+ 1x80MHz at 3. 5GH 0.18 1x800MHz at 28GHz 0.005 151% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Note: *2X50MHz spectrum bands were purchased for A$95. 3m in October 2000 by AKaL Pty Limited(Un wired), later named Vividwireless Optus acquired vivicwireless for A$230m in February 2012, which owned the aforementioned 100MHz of spectrum in the 3. 5GHz frequency and 98MHZ of spectrum in the 4G 2. 3GHz frequency Asla Telecoms sector 2 CREDIT SUISSE 13 February 2019 5G: Counting the cost picking the winners 5G progressing: Some markets now have spectrum Operators now A standalone version of 5G("5G- s")was finalised by the 3GPP in July 2018, in 3GPP incurring real costs Release 15. The standards are sufficient for vendors to construct end-to-end network for 5G elements, as well as preliminary 5G devices. Operators in Korea and Australia have already purchased 5G spectrum at auction. In China, on 7 December 2018, the MIIT ssued allocations of mid-band 5G spectrum to the three china telcos for nationwide trials, and in Japan allocations will be awarded in March 2019. Operators are therefore beginning to incur real costs for 5G, in the form of spectrum fees and, in 2019, capex though use cases are still not overly convincing Still no killer apps'to After purchasing or being allocated 5G spectrum resources, operators want to use it to drive demand provide additional low cost capacity(low cost on a per GB basis at least), and offload or revenue traffic from congested 3G and 4G networks. Thus capacity provision is likely to be the key initial driver for 5G rollout on the operator side. However, demand pull use cases are lagging. There still seems to be no pressing need for nationwide 5G coverage for ' mass market' consumers, in the way that video, and therefore content, e-commerce and gaming were facilitated by stable speeds of over 4Mbps through 4G technology. This suggests that gradual rollout using a hotspot approach would be the least damaging strategy for profitability, but this strategy is unlikely to be acceptable in Japan, Korea or China Nevertheless, 5G capex to commence in 2019 Spectrum payments Indeed, spectrum costs are already now a fact(at least, in Australia and Korea),and incurred, capex capital is being deployed on equipment during 2019. We forecast rising capex-to-sales commencing in 2019 ratios in Hong Kong, Korea, Japan and China across FY19-21. Given high 4G penetration and what currently looks to be poor prospects for 5G monetisation, we expect returns on invested capital (RoIC )to decline in Japan, China, Australia and Hong Kong across FY19 24. Facto expected spectrum costs in Hong Kon our DCF-based target prices for Smar Tone, HKT Trust and HTHK by 9. 1%, 1.1% and 3.2%o, respectively, to HK$1115, HK$13.05 and HK$3.05, respectively Stock calls: Overweight 4G market repair situations Top picks: DTAC, The proximity of real costs(spectrum fees and capex)-in contrast with a lack of clarity PT Telkom and SingTel over the prospects of monetising 5G-leads us to adopt a relatively cautious stance on telcos in China, Australia, Korea and Japan. Our top OUTPERFORM calls--namely DTAC, PT Telkom and SingTelhave exposure to markets that look set to adopt a gradual hotspot approach to 5G rollout, while they enjoy improving 4G dynamics. For DTAC, the receipt of 2300MHZ spectrum in April 2018, followed by acquisition of 1800MHZ spectrum in August 2018 and 850/900MHz spectrum in October 2018, confirms it as a going concern,. Absence of Bt4.0 bn per quarter in concession-related depreciation charges should help dTAC monetise the remaining 4G opportunity, and beat consensus forecasts in FY19. PT Telkom is the only liquid way to invest in 4G 'market repairin Indonesia, and is best placed for 5G rollout in terms of both cellular and fibre network resources. While SingTel is exposed to competition in the domestic Singapore market, due to the entry of TPG, this represents a small proportion of SingTel's sum-of-the parts. Its associates in Indonesia and Thailand, benefiting from market repair and low 5G capex risk, and much more material drivers of SingTel. We are also less negative on SingTel's exposure to the competitive dynamics in India as we look forward, given that Jio has already reached 25.0% market share by revenue On a two-year view, it is reasonable to expect Jio to starting behaving more like an incumbent-focused on monetising its existing and less like a new entrant cutting gain scale Asla Telecoms sector CREDIT SUISSE 13 February 2019 Sector valuations Figure 5: Asia telco comparative multiples Target Mkt capL PIEEVIEBITDAFCF yield Div yield Ticker Ccy price Rating rice 9E20E19E2019E20E19E20E China Tower 788HK HKS 1670 183367449297736732%40%11%20% Integrated operators PT Telon TLKM IJ Rp3930000450076178165837629%60%44%55% China telecom 728HK HKS 4.26N 395439124 32326.8%49%40%55% Chunghwa n China Unicom 762HK HKs 9.05 N 99535317213.9343211.2%85%29%43% 2412T NTS 106.50 U 90.0026725025110.510447%46%4.0%40% HTHK 215HK HKS 3.11 N 305193655.51841790.6%09%2.7%21% KDDI 9433JP 305791121121474711161134%34% C30200KS W28,700 32,0006710495252320.2%18.9%3.5%35% Softbank 9984 JP ￥10.0150117009889119.9737345%9.1%04%04% PCCW HK$4.760 55547405338109710.1%108%69%73% HKT Trust 6823HK HK11800101161751110910677%80%60%64% PLDT TEL PM P1,216U 1,150 5011911 5.9 57-0.9%0.2%5.1%69% Sing Tel S$3050 366 15313364526.8%74%5.7%57% TM TMK RM2850 32026161151147444.5%53%3 Telstra TLS AU 31027417613.06.3546.8%9.7%52%52% True corp TRUE TB 3455564759969678%8.5%0.0%00% LINK IJ p4,3800008.350.00 8.7 538|8.8%10.3%57%79% HKBN 1310H HK$12040 14751528620.910.57958%6.%57%71% Dr Peng 600804CH Rmb 8.34 N 9.00 18364190 5.5 475.1 3%0.8%16% Asia average- integrated 145157 57 5457%66%28%31% NJA· integrated 18.716.7 64596.9%6.9%44%50% Close Target Mkt cap P/E EVIEBITDA FCF yield Div vield Ticker ccy price Rating price (Uss bn) 19E 20E19E 20E Ticke Ccy price Rating Mobile operators AIS ADVANC TB Bt1810002300171167168.08277%82%42%62% AXIATA AXIATA MK RM3830 4608522019247469.5%10%36%42% Bharti BHARTIIN Rs31220N320.00175105828.38.1755.5%10.6%0.1%04% China mobile 941HK HKs8225N82502145126126323158%51%43%44% DIGI MK RM 340872372451261282%22%42%41% EXCL IJ p2,1300 3.300 161109285 3179%14.0%08%32% FarEasTone 4904TT NTS 72.00 N 7700076236232 92 916:%6.3%52%52% Globe GLO PM P1.980N 2000 50137128 585816%35%46%52% DEA IDEA IN NR31.15U n. m n. m 11.7 96986%-1394%0.0% 0% Indosat SAT丨 Rp3,520o 4000 1.4n. n. m 4.5 43-87%-6.7%0.0 00% LG Plus W15100N1480059139122373657%5.1%26%26% Ma×is MAXIS MK RM 5.70 U 9|231234129 35% NTT DoCoMo 9437JP 2.52N27006741231236.06054%54%43%43% 017670KS W261003500017917548457%57%42%42% Smar Tone 315HK HK$9620 11151415915.3617780%7.2%4.7%49% StarHub STH SP SS 1.91 U 152416621673788.1%67%52%52% TAc DTAC TB Bt47750 71003616316.2 5.1 489.1%9.8%3.1%31% Taiwan mobile 3045TT NTS10950N1100121233232969661%57%51%51% Asia average· mobile 514.9 5049%42%41%42% NJA- mobile 19414.9 49484.8%39%4.0%42% Asia average· telecoms 16415.3 5253%55%34%36% NJA-telecoms 19115.6555357%5.1%42%4.5% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Asla Telecoms sector CREDIT SUISSE 13 February 2019 5G progressing: Some markets now have spectrum Standards for standalone (5G-s)already set The 3GPP-the de-facto standard-setting body for 5G-announced the first version of the 3GPP 5G standard in December 2017. This standard, termed 5G non-standalone (5G NS"), requires 4G-LTE(both LTE radio and LtE core) to act as an anchor for the 5G network and therefore 5G-ns acts an as overlay on an existing 4G network Standalone version of A standalone version of 5G (5G-s")was finalised by the 3GPP in July 2018, in 3GPP 5G(5G-s")finalised Release 15. This release brought a new end-to-end infrastructure facilitating the ability to in July 2018 deploy 5G independently, without the need for LTE (neither LTE radio nor LTE core)as an anchor to operate. While a further step in 5G standardisation comes with 3GPP's Release 16, known as '5G phase 2, currently scheduled for December 2019, the 5G-S standards set in July 2018 are sufficient for vendors to construct end-to-end network elements, as well as preliminary 5G devices. Operators with appropriate licences and spectrum resources are now therefore in a position to broaden 5G tests and move towards full commercial launch So, what actually constitutes 5G? Crucially, both 5G-NS and 5G-s use OFDM(orthogonal frequency division multiplexing) as the radio access waveform, the same radio waveform used in 4G-LTE. Thus, in itself, the improvement in spectral efficiency(bps/Hz from a 5G RAN (radio access network) versus a 4G RAN is actually substantially lower than the increase seen in previous generation upgrades (4G VS 3G, 3G vs 2G etc) However, several aspects of 5G technology come together to produce higher speeds (circa 10X 4G levels, at up to 20Gbps), and lower latency (circa 1/30th 4G levels, a 1 millisecond)for users, as well as dramatically higher capacity for operators Figure 6: Key enablers of 5G Beam-forming Automation Distributed cor Wider channel Software Defined bandwidths setf-aptimining Networking(SDN) nr种命n心by Incroased capacity efficiency 20H twork数 networ restioncy M enables Carlot clasticity ower latency Multi-user MIMO 1000MH Network Funetion Carrie Virtualisation Dynamic traffiC Network slicing (NFV routing enables increased throughput network capacity prpgrammabllsy 草)C Supporta different Enhanced Supporte network AG面 propagation 8 slicing& automation, fixed/mobile increased capacity operational agility CONverT niCo Source: Telstra5G investor day, December 2018 Those aspects include beam forming, which directs capacity to a device on the move, multi-user MIMO Multiple In-Multiple Out), which allows devices to receive multiple allocations of capacity, distributed cores, which allow core network resources to be positioned closer to customers, and network slicing, which allows a portion of core and radio network to be dedicated to a specific user or user group Wider channel The other critical factor is wider channel bandwidths Release 16 allows radio carriers bandwidths are crucial up to 1000MHz wide, compared to the 20MHz maximum carrier width of 4G(LTE) Operators are currently achieving high speeds (up to 2 Gbps)on LTE by aggregating several 10-20MHz channels. The signalling used to support such carrier aggregation Asla Telecoms sector CREDIT SUISSE 13 February 2019 creates inefficiencies. 5G can therefore boost efficiency by using wider single bands to begin with, obviating the need for carrier aggregation and therefore reducing signaling overhead. The key implication of this is that additional spectrum resources-with much wider carrier bands--are needed and spectrum has been issued in Korea, China and Australia(with issuance in Japan by end March) Thus, to enjoy the significantly higher speeds and improved performance of 5G(higher capacity and lower latency), operators require additional spectrum resources in larger quantities(.e, in wider carrier allocations, of circa 100MHz per block) Additional spectrum, in wider blocks, is primarily available at higher spectrum bands that were previously unused. Thus, the 3GPP standard-setters were focusing on standardising the 3.5GHz and mmWave, e.g,(28GHz) bands, (in addition to the sub-26GHz bands which are already being used for 2G, 3G and 4G cellular services) Figure 7: Spectrum versus telco technology generation 3G 800MHz 900MHz 18GHZ 19GHz 2.0GH 1GHz 2.3GHZ 25GHz 2.6GHz 3.5GHz 28GHz Source: Credit suisse estimates Thus far in Asia, 5G spectrum auctions and allocations have primarily focused on the'mid- band spectrum, at 2.6GHz through 4.9GHZ. Very much as expected, Korea, Japan and China, with their equipment lobbies, regulatory pressure and(in China) government ownership, are at the forefront of 5G trials and spectrum issuance in Asia, together with Australia. These allocations fall broadly in line with leading global markets Figure 8: 5G spectrum proposals across major countries clc sChir hOLt 6471cH 35E 53 2:523 ?10 ●00●x 5 57 33 器 77智 算74 1感 4-r 0.2Gb 2 20 Gbps Now Lr bh Fu coerage 10x
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